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GVC Seminar Series: Andrei Levchenko

讲座题目:An Analytical and Quantitative Framework to Study International Co-movement and Shock Transmission in Global Value Chains

主讲人:Andrei Levchenko

讲座时间:20211111日 下午3

Zoom ID: 924 5693 6331

Password: 270340


We develop a general and unified framework to study the role of production networks in international GDP co-movement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP co-movement into components capturing shock transmission and shock correlation. We quantify this decomposition in a parsimonious multi-country, multi-sector network propagation model featuring a single composite supply shock, with data for 29 countries and up to 30 years. We find that while the network transmission of shocks is quantitatively important, it accounts for a minority of observed co-movement under a range of standard values of structural elasticities. We present applications to the role of supply chains in the COVID-19 pandemic, and to the role of globalization and structural change in the evolution of international co-movement between 1970 and the Great Recession.


Andrei Levchenko is a Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan, Editor-in-Chief of IMF Economic Review, and the Director of the International Trade and Macroeconomics program of the Central Bank Research Association. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and a member of the editorial boards of the Economic Journal, Journal of International Economics and Journal of Comparative Economics. Previously, he was an Economist at the International Monetary Fund, and has held visiting positions at the Universities of Chicago, Lausanne, and Zurich. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT in 2004. Prof. Levchenko’s current research focuses on the propagation of macroeconomic shocks within and across borders. His research has been funded by several agencies including the US National Science Foundation and the UK Department for International Development, and has appeared in a variety of journals including American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, and Review of Economic Studies.